MGI Research

Thursday, Feb 23rd

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Tech Trends

MGI Tech Trends coverage looks at the macro-level trends that are shaping the landscape of the technology industry. The research aims to uncover secular, multi-year trend cycles that will generate both sustainable opportunities and meaningful risks. Applying scenario analysis, Tech Trends research looks at the Tech industry through both a technological and an economic lens. Current key issues include:

  • With the slow death of Wintel, which technologies and vendors will assume the mantel of industry leadership?
  • Will Everything as a Service ever gain traction?
  • How will IT spending be allocated between maintaining existing systems and investments in innovation?
  • What are the implications of IT spend moving away from the CIO and into the business units? Which vendors will win/lose in that scenario?
  • Can mid-size vendors survive in an era of the mega vendors? 
  • How will IT spending hold up in 2011 and 2012?
  • What are the high impact, low probability events that could disrupt the IT industry?
  • Will Agile programming change the buy vs build decision in software?
  • Are the CHIAO vendors (Cisco, HP, IBM, Apple, and Oracle) the new IT oligarchs? 

Commentary: Blogging Grows Up - AOL Acquires Huffington Post

For a relatively modestly sized deal, the AOL acquisition of Huffington Post generated a disproportionately audible media and investor response. It seems the attention often bestowed on the highly visible and sometimes controversial Huffington Post co-founder, Arianna Huffington, has obscured the obvious fact that this is not about HuffPo, - it is all about AOL. HuffPo was destined to be sold, - after Newsweek acquired Tina Brown's The Daily Beast, the writing was on the wall, it was just a matter of time. News Blogging, especially politically focused, has become a real business. For AOL, the stakes are much larger - this deal is a bet-your-farm kind of transaction. Under different market conditions, AOL would have probably ended up going for a more meaningful target like The New York Times. On the heels of the deal, many investors were doing a double take on many traditional media companies like Gannett. To see the full content of the note click here.

Top Ten Tech Unlikely Surprises for 2010

Tech Suprises of 2010In the spirit of Byron Wien, MGI Research publishes a list of top ten surprises in technology. To make the list, the probability of the surprise must be less than 10% - i.e., we seek to highlight very low probability, but high impact events that run completely counter to conventional wisdom.

Gartner Acquires AMR Research - A Comment on IT Spending?

Gartner, Inc. announced today an all-cash offer of $64 million for competitor AMR Research.  Gartner expects the deal to close by the end of December 2009, and will add AMR's approximately $40 million in revenue to Gartner's industry leading $1.2 billion (TTM) top line.  The market reacted mildly positive to the news, edging its market cap up 3% in midday trading. Looking into FY2011, Gartner will need a new source of top line growth, unless of course the IT industry rebounds robustly ahead of expectations - which does not appear to be the expectation of AMR's owners/research leaders.

OSBC Open Source Conference Highlights

We attended InfoWorld's 6th annual OSBC event in San Francisco, where the open source community convenes in a business setting.  The major theme was the attraction of open source products' low cost during a period of IT budget contractions.  Our major interest was to measure the relative success of open source companies in reaching the enterprise market and their ability to threaten the established vendors.  The short conclusion is that open source projects continue to make inroads into Silicon Valley development efforts, but as a business, open source companies have yet to prove their long-term viability with a business model capable of delivering attractive returns to investors.

Open Source Outlook - Do or Die Time?

27 March, 2009 - The outlook on 2009 enterprise IT spending looks grim.   The silver lining in the doom and gloom surrounding technology spending in 2009 may be found in open source technologies.  The popular business press is touting the notion that the recession could boost market share gains for open source technology companies.  To date, open source technology has not proven to be nearly as disruptive or profitable as once predicted.  Based on funding activity in 2008 and the distance open source companies have to go in reaching sustainable profitability, 2009 looks to be a make or break year for open source companies.

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