MGI Research

Tuesday, Feb 19th

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Top Ten Tech Unlikely Surprises for 2010

Tech Suprises of 2010In the spirit of Byron Wien, MGI Research publishes a list of top ten surprises in technology. To make the list, the probability of the surprise must be less than 10% - i.e., we seek to highlight very low probability, but high impact events that run completely counter to conventional wisdom.

Top Ten Unlikely Surprises for 2010

  1. Large Internet businesses come under fire on two fronts - net neutrality and taxation. Google, Apple, Amazon, Yahoo, EBay and others are all affected.
  2. Industry has a remarkable year in terms of growth and even more remarkable in profitability. IT spending takes off dramatically - far exceeding all expectations. 
  3. Microsoft acquires Red Hat and becomes a key Open Source supplier.
  4. CA is acquired by HP or EMC.
  5. Oracle+Sun re-define the enterprise systems market.
  6. IBM re-enters application software in major way - acquires SAP, makes healthcare IT purchase, and a major buy in smart-grid space. 
  7. IT security & virus protection spending surges - plethora of consumer device viruses and public breach of a major SaaS vendor drive users to open their wallets.
  8. Data center energy consumption becomes headline topic, fuels cloud computing - IT is compelled to lead corporate greening initiative.
  9. Tech IPOs soar, led by success of Facebook listing in Q2. 
  10. Private equity heads for the exits - Infor and Sunguard attempt to go public.